It’s January 19, 2026, and if you haven’t secured your health insurance for the year yet, the clock isn’t just ticking—it’s practically screaming. While Open Enrollment for the Health Insurance Marketplace officially closed for most of the country on January 15, a few states (like California, New York, and New Jersey) have extended deadlines through the end of the month.
Whether you missed the deadline or were simply paralyzed by the “sticker shock” of this year’s prices, you aren’t alone. 2026 has brought some of the most significant changes to the health insurance landscape in nearly a decade.
The Perfect Storm: Rate Hikes and Subsidy Cuts
If you logged into the Marketplace this year and saw a premium that looked like a mortgage payment, there’s a reason for it. We are currently facing what experts are calling the “2026 Rate Cliff.”
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The Expiration of Enhanced Subsidies: The extra financial help provided by the Inflation Reduction Act expired on December 31, 2025. For many families, this “cancellation” of extra credits means out-of-pocket costs have jumped by 75% or more for the exact same coverage.
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Double-Digit Rate Increases: On top of the lost subsidies, insurers have raised base premiums by a median of 18–20% this year, citing rising labor costs in hospitals and the high price of new weight-loss and specialty medications.
For many, the “Affordable” Care Act simply doesn’t feel affordable anymore.
A Flexible Alternative: Short-Term Medical (STM)
If the Marketplace has priced you out, or if you missed the window to enroll, Short-Term Medical plans have become a go-to alternative for 2026.
Unlike the restrictive rules of previous years, many states now allow for extended STM plans that provide up to 3 years of coverage (through renewable 364-day terms).
Why consider Short-Term Medical?
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Affordability: Monthly premiums are often 50–80% lower than unsubsidized Marketplace plans.
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Speed: Coverage can often start as soon as tomorrow.
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Flexibility: You can drop the coverage at any time if a better option (like a new job) comes along.
Note: These plans are best for healthy individuals. Because they are not ACA-compliant, they typically use medical underwriting and may not cover pre-existing conditions or maternity care.
Bridging the Gap with Supplemental Coverage
Because many of the “affordable” plans for 2026—including Bronze and Catastrophic plans—come with very high deductibles, Supplemental Coverage is more important than ever. These plans pay cash directly to you to cover your deductible if the worst happens:
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Accident Expense: Covers out-of-pocket costs from ER visits or broken bones.
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Critical Illness: Provides a lump sum if you are diagnosed with a major illness like cancer or a heart attack.
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Hospital Indemnity: Pays you a set amount for every day you are confined to a hospital bed.
Don’t Go It Alone: Talk to a Local Broker
Navigating the 2026 market is like walking through a minefield. This is not the year to “DIY” your health insurance. A local independent broker is your best resource—and the best part? Their services are usually free to you.
A local broker knows which hospital networks are actually participating in which plans and can help you weigh the risk of a Short-Term plan versus an ACA plan.
How to find a pro:
When you search for a broker in your area, look closely at their Google Reviews. * Are they responsive?
A high rating from your neighbors is the best insurance that you’re getting honest advice.
Starting in 2026, Medicare will fully implement a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending.
Prescription drug costs have long been one of the biggest financial burdens for Americans, but relief may be on the horizon for many. Starting in 2026, Medicare will fully implement a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending. This is a landmark change baked within the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially offering reprieve to millions around the country.
However, this new rule comes with certain nuances, including how the cap is calculated, which means you might run into surprise bills if you aren’t careful. QMedic analyzed data from sources including Medicare Rights, the AARP, and Humana to break down how your cap will be calculated, whether or not you qualify, and what to do during open enrollment to ensure you receive your benefit in 2026.
Understanding the $2,000 cap: What it really means
Under the new law, out-of-pocket spending for Medicare Part D prescription drugs will be capped at $2,000 per year. This began in 2025, but plan adjustments will carry into 2026. Once you have spent up to $2,000 on the amount of covered drugs, Medicare and your plan will contribute to cover the rest for the remainder of the year.
The AARP made note of how this new $2,000 cap is meant to replace the previous catastrophic coverage phase, which resulted in enrollees still paying 5% of their drug costs after reaching a certain threshold. Under this new policy, the 5% additional payment is wiped out entirely. The change will apply to all Medicare Part D prescription plans, regardless of whether you get coverage through a standalone plan or through a Medicare Advantage plan.
Necessary calculations: Why you might pay less than $2,000
It’s worth noting that not everyone will reach the full $2,000 by the end of the year. The actual amount you spend out-of-pocket will depend on your plan’s specific copays, coinsurance, and your eligibility for Extra Help, the low-income subsidy program. Additionally, manufacturer discounts and plan payments may count towards your out-of-pocket total.
Real-world drug cost scenarios: What to expect at the pharmacy
To gain a better understanding of how this could play out in your daily life, let’s take a deeper dive into some realistic theoretical examples:
Scenario 1: High-cost specialty medication starting in January
Imagine you were to begin treatment in January with a high-cost specialty drug that costs $1,500 per month and is included in Part D. Under the rules in 2026, you would most likely reach your $2,000 out-of-pocket maximum in February or March, causing your copay to drop to $0 for the remainder of the year.
Under the old system, you would have continued to pay a 5% share, resulting in potentially hundreds or thousands more. This is especially impactful for those who need to take high-cost medicines for chronic conditions such as cancer, multiple sclerosis, or rheumatoid arthritis.
Scenario 2: Multiple medications with moderate costs
Now, think about someone who needs five prescriptions that cost about $300 a month combined. Over a 12-month period, this would amount to $3,600 in total drug costs, but your out-of-pocket costs might be only $1,200-$1,800. While you wouldn’t necessarily hit the $2,000 ceiling, you would still benefit from reduced copays and predictable spending thanks to the new smoothing program.
Scenario 3: Starting treatment midyear (August)
The final scenario comes into play if you start an expensive medication in the middle of the year. Say you begin a $2,000-per-month therapy in August. Before the year’s end, you would likely hit the out-of-pocket limit after just one or two refills, then owe nothing through the remainder of the year. This is meant to protect new patients from high costs, too, ensuring they are treated fairly on cost regardless of when treatment began.
The medicare prescription payment plan (M3P): Monthly “smoothing” explained
Another aspect of this $2,000 cap proposal comes into play: the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan (M3P). This further helps enrollees to reduce costs by adjusting payment frequencies. Drug costs can be spread out over the year instead of paying large lump sums right at the counter. Your pharmacy records each prescription you fill, and instead of paying your total copay immediately, your drug plan bills you monthly for a portion of the costs.
This “smoothing” process can help make your monthly spending more predictable and reduce the burden of a huge lump sum payment.
Who benefits from M3P?
The smoothing plan benefits people who primarily:
- Take expensive brand-name or specialty medications
- Experience high seasonal or front-loaded drug costs
- Prefer predictable monthly budgeting
If your out-of-pocket spending would usually hit $2,000 by March, for instance, the M3P would spread that cost into 12 monthly payments of about $166.
Who should skip M3P
Alternatively, the Medicare Rights Center notes that those with stable monthly costs or those with high costs in the latter part of the year should consider skipping. Also, be aware that if you disenroll or switch plans midyear, you will still owe any outstanding M3P balances on your old plan.
How to enroll in M3P
Enrollment in M3P begins when open enrollment starts, so you’ll typically sign up through your Part D or Medicare Advantage plan’s website or via phone. Participation is voluntary, but if you choose to enroll, then you will see your remaining balance for the year, your amount due that month, and any progress you’ve made towards the $2,000 cap.
Open enrollment action plan: Steps to avoid surprise bills
The key way to maximize your savings in the coming year is to make wise choices during the annual open enrollment period, which has already begun. Typically starting on October 15 and running through December 7, there are some critical dates to be aware of.
Critical dates for Medicare open enrollment
- October 15, 2025: Open Enrollment begins
- December 7, 2025: Last day to enroll or change plans
- January 1, 2026: New coverage takes effect
Be aware that missing the above window will lock you into your current plan and mean you miss out on lower drug costs or better formula coverage.
Step-by-step checklist for beneficiaries
Making sure you’re enhancing your plan for 2026 requires following a few key steps:
- Review your current medications and costs: Look at your 2025 drug list and total out-of-pocket expenses, making note of any high-cost medications that might push you toward the cap.
- Check your plan’s 2026 formulary: Drug formularies, which are the lists of covered medications, can change each year, so verify that your prescriptions remain covered and check for any new prior authorization requirements.
- Compare plans using Medicare Plan Finder: Use the official Medicare Plan Finder to compare costs, premiums, and coverage options for 2026.
- Evaluate whether M3P makes sense for you by considering your spending patterns. If you routinely face high costs early in the year, then M3P may offer much-needed flexibility.
- Enroll or make changes during open enrollment: Don’t wait until the last minute. Enroll in your chosen plan or make adjustments before December 7 to ensure that your new coverage takes effect in January.
Additional considerations to avoid surprise costs
The last thing anyone wants is surprise expenses, which is why it’s essential to consider additional factors. Always confirm that your pharmacy is in-network for your plan. Additionally, ask your provider whether generic or lower-tier alternatives to your drug are available. You should also watch for any premium changes, as the $2,000 cap doesn’t affect your monthly premiums.
Special considerations for caregivers and family members
If you are helping take care of someone and managing their medications, understanding the Medicare landscape for 2026 is crucial.
Helping seniors navigate the changes
Many older adults rely on their adult children or caregivers to help manage their Medicare paperwork. Encourage your loved one to review their plan materials as early as possible so you can assist them with enrollment when the time comes. Also, offer to help compare different costs with the Plan Finder tool.
Financial planning tips
Since out-of-pocket expenses will be capped and potentially spread out monthly, you can better predict your annual healthcare spending. Aim to set aside a small monthly budget for medications or coordinate with automatic payments through the M3P to help prevent missed bills or late fees.
Communication with healthcare providers
Finally, encourage open communication between any doctors or pharmacists involved with your loved one or the person you’re caring for. Ask whether any upcoming medication changes could affect costs or potentially trigger coverage reviews. Providers can also help to identify covered alternatives or patient assistance programs.
Financial assistance programs: Extra help for those who qualify
In some cases, additional financial assistance may still be necessary even with the $2,000 cap in place. Luckily, there are a couple of options that can help:
Extra Help (Low-Income Subsidy) Program
The Extra Help program, also known as the Low-Income Subsidy program, continues to provide significant assistance to people with limited income or resources. It can lower or eliminate premiums, deductibles, and copays. In some cases, this can result in your out-of-pocket costs being below $2,000 even before the cap applies. To qualify, your monthly income must not exceed $1,903if you are an individual and $2,575 if you are using as a couple.
Other assistance options
Beyond the Extra Help program, you may potentially qualify for:
- State Pharmaceutical Assistance Programs (SPAPs)
- Nonprofit foundations that help with copays for certain diseases
- Manufacturer discount programs (though eligibility varies by income and plan type)
If you’re unsure where to start to explore your options, visit your State Health Insurance Assistance Program or the Medicare website to learn about payment assistance.
Common questions and misconceptions
When it comes to Medicare, and specifically the adjustment of the $2,000 cap, there are some common questions and misconceptions:
Myth vs. reality
- Myth: The $2,000 cap means you’ll never pay more than $2,000 for prescriptions.
Reality: The cap only applies to covered Part D drugs, meaning over-the-counter medications or drugs excluded from your plan’s formulary may still cost extra
- Myth: All plans will work the same.
Reality: While the cap is universal, premiums, formularies, and pharmacy networks still vary widely by plan, so always compare before enrolling
- Myth: You’ll automatically be enrolled in M3P.
Reality: Enrollment is optional, and you must actively sign up with your plan to use the monthly payment option
Payment and billing concerns
The most frequent billing questions come from being enrolled in M3P. If you opt into the plan, you’ll receive monthly bills directly from your plan, not from your pharmacy. It’s crucial to pay this on time so that you don’t lose access to the smoothing feature or, worse, fall behind on your owed amounts.
Taking control of your 2026 prescription costs
The new $2,000 Medicare drug cost cap will mark a historic shift towards a more predictable and affordable healthcare environment for millions of people. Combined with the optional Medicare Prescription Payment Plan, seniors and those taking Part D drugs alike can finally budget for prescription costs without fear of surprise bills. With 2026 fast approaching, ensure you are prepared by reviewing your medications, comparing different plans, and considering whether the smoothing plan fits your budget. This will allow you to take full advantage of financial protections and ensure next year’s prescriptions are the most manageable they’ve ever been.
If you get your health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace, you might be facing sticker shock during this year’s Open Enrollment. While the underlying cost of health coverage is undeniably rising, a massive policy change—the expiration of crucial pandemic-era subsidies—is set to hit millions of Americans’ wallets with a significant increase in 2026.
Here is a summary of the expected increases and what is driving them:
1. The Shocking Rise in Premiums
Insurance companies are proposing major premium hikes for ACA plans. The base cost (gross premium) for coverage on the Marketplace is increasing by an estimated 26% on average for 2026 plans.
However, the real blow for many will come from the net premium—the amount enrollees pay after financial assistance.
2. The Expiration of Enhanced Subsidies (The “Subsidy Cliff”)
The main catalyst for the massive increase in out-of-pocket costs is the scheduled expiration of the enhanced Premium Tax Credits (PTCs) at the end of 2025.
- Massive Cost Shift: If Congress does not renew these enhanced subsidies, the average subsidized enrollee’s monthly premium payment is estimated to more than double, increasing by about 114% on average.
- Real-World Impact: An analysis suggests the annual out-of-pocket premium for the average subsidized household could jump from approximately $888 to over $1,900 for 2026 coverage.
- The Loss of the “No Cliff” Rule: Before the temporary enhancements, individuals with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty line were ineligible for any subsidy (a “subsidy cliff”). The enhanced credits removed this cliff. If they expire, these higher-income enrollees will face the full, unsubsidized cost of their plan, potentially paying tens of thousands of dollars more a year.
3. The Problem of High Deductibles
While monthly premiums capture attention, high deductibles remain a core issue for many ACA enrollees. Even with subsidized premiums, many families still face very high out-of-pocket maximums. For some lower-income families, deductibles can be set as high as $14,700 for a family of four.
Furthermore, as insurers and employers look for ways to offset rising gross costs, there is concern that a new wave of rising deductibles will be implemented to keep premium costs down, shifting more financial risk onto the consumer.
4. Why Are Underlying Costs Rising?
The subsidy expiration only exacerbates a pre-existing trend of rising healthcare costs. Key drivers include:
- Inflation & Labor Costs: General economic inflation and rising costs for healthcare workers and services.
- Specialty Medications: The increasing use and high price of expensive specialty drugs, particularly weight-loss medications like GLP-1s, are cited by insurers as a significant factor in premium increases.
- Anticipation of Risk: Insurers are factoring in a higher-risk pool, anticipating that healthier individuals—who will see the sharpest price increases—will drop their coverage, leaving the Marketplace with a higher concentration of older and sicker people.
What to Do Next: As the Open Enrollment period is underway, it is critical for consumers to check their new premium costs and shop for plans, as the best value plan may have changed significantly from the previous year. Lawmakers continue to debate solutions, including proposals to extend the subsidies or redirect the funding directly to patients to help offset high out-of-pocket costs.
As a health insurance broker in Surprise, AZ I can help. Plans off exchange and outside the ACA are available.
Contact Andy Orlikoff Today!
623-742-3878
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