Millions may drop ACA coverage — and raise health insurance costs for everyone else

Millions of Americans could drop ACA coverage in 2026 if enhanced premium subsidies expire — and the ripple effect could drive up costs for everyone who stays enrolled. For Arizona residents who rely on the ACA marketplace, here’s what’s at stake and what your options are if prices spike.

Why Millions May Drop ACA Coverage

The enhanced premium subsidies introduced by the American Rescue Plan Act significantly reduced ACA marketplace premiums for millions of enrollees. Many people who previously couldn’t afford marketplace coverage were suddenly able to enroll — and did.

If those enhanced subsidies expire or are reduced, the same people who enrolled would face premium increases they can no longer afford — and many would drop ACA coverage entirely. According to Kaiser Family Foundation, millions of enrollees could lose coverage if enhanced subsidies end.

The Market Stability Problem

When healthier, lower-income people drop ACA coverage because they can no longer afford it, the remaining pool of enrollees skews sicker and older. This drives up costs for insurers — who then raise premiums for everyone still enrolled.

This is the “adverse selection spiral” that insurance market economists worry about: coverage becomes unaffordable, healthy people leave, costs rise, more people leave, costs rise further.

What Arizona Residents Should Do Now

If you’re currently on an ACA plan in Arizona and concerned about rising costs, here are your options:

• Check your subsidy eligibility — income changes could mean larger subsidies than you currently receive
• Compare off-exchange plans — if you earn too much for meaningful subsidies, a private PPO may cost less
• Explore short-term medical plans — for healthy individuals between jobs or waiting for open enrollment
• Contact a local broker — an independent broker can compare all options at no extra cost to you

Free Help Comparing Arizona Health Insurance Options

I’m Andy Orlikoff, an independent health insurance broker in Surprise, AZ. I help Arizona residents find affordable health coverage — whether that’s an ACA marketplace plan, a private PPO, or a short-term plan. My help is free. Your premium is the same whether you use a broker or go direct.

Call or text: (623) 742-3878
Email: andy@azhealth.us
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