1 in 10 Medicare Advantage Members Just Lost Their Plan for 2026 — Here’s What It Means for You

If you or someone you love is on a Medicare Advantage plan, the ground just shifted under your feet — and most people don’t yet realize it.

A peer-reviewed research letter published in JAMA in February 2026, from a team at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, put a hard number on what many of us in this business have been watching unfold: roughly 2.9 million Medicare Advantage members — about 1 in 10 — are being forced out of their plans for 2026. Their insurance company either pulled out of the county entirely or shut down the plan they were on.

For context, the historical rate of forced disenrollment ran at about 1% from 2018 through 2024. It jumped to 6.9% in 2025, and now sits at 10% for 2026. That’s a tenfold increase in two years.

Why This Is Happening

The short version: several large insurers looked at rising medical costs and shifting federal payment rules, and decided they couldn’t make the Medicare Advantage math work in certain markets anymore. So they cut plans. Some smaller carriers exited entirely.

The people hit hardest, according to the research, were enrollees in PPO plans, plans from smaller carriers, plans with lower star ratings, and rural counties. If any of that describes your current plan, you should assume you’re closer to this problem than farther from it.

What Happens Next If You Get Forced Off Your Plan

Here’s the part almost no one talks about until it’s too late.

When your Medicare Advantage plan exits your county, you typically get a Special Enrollment Period to pick a new plan. That sounds like a solution. In many cases it isn’t.

Your options usually break down into three uncomfortable choices:

• Enroll in a different Medicare Advantage plan — often one with a narrower network, a different provider list, and different drug coverage. Your current doctors may or may not be in-network. Your prescriptions may or may not be covered the same way.
• Go back to Original Medicare — which covers about 80% of costs, leaving you exposed to the remaining 20% with no annual out-of-pocket cap. That’s why most people on Original Medicare add a Medicare Supplement (Medigap) plan to fill the gap.
• Go back to Original Medicare and try to buy a Medigap plan — this is where the catch lives.

The Medigap Catch That Blindsides People

Federal law protects your right to buy any Medigap plan sold in your state, with no health questions asked, during a specific one-time six-month window that starts when you’re first 65 and enrolled in Medicare Part B.

If you missed that window because you went straight into Medicare Advantage, and you now need a Medigap plan because your Advantage plan disappeared, in most states the insurance company can look at your health history and either turn you down or raise your rate.

There are some situations that create guaranteed-issue rights — protected windows where you can buy Medigap without medical underwriting. Losing your Medicare Advantage plan because it exited your area is one of them. But the timing is tight (typically 63 days after your coverage ends) and the plans you’re guaranteed access to are a narrower set than you’d have during the original Open Enrollment Period.

This is why I’ve said for years, and will keep saying: the decision to enroll in Medicare Advantage isn’t fully reversible. It looks like a low-cost option going in. When the exit door slams shut, the underwriting door often does too.

What Medicare Beneficiaries Should Do Right Now

If you’re on a Medicare Advantage plan, here’s the checklist I’d walk any client through:

• Read your Annual Notice of Change carefully. This letter comes every fall. It tells you whether your plan is continuing, changing, or exiting for the coming year.
• Check whether your doctors and prescriptions are still covered. Even if your plan continues, the network and formulary can change year to year.
• Know your guaranteed-issue rights. If your plan is exiting your area, you have a limited window to buy certain Medigap plans without health underwriting. Don’t miss it.
• Talk to someone who doesn’t sell Medicare Advantage. I don’t. That’s a deliberate choice, not an oversight. If you’re getting advice only from someone who does, you’re getting one side of the picture.

Why I Don’t Sell Medicare Advantage

The Johns Hopkins study is the clearest third-party validation I’ve seen of the position I’ve held since day one of my practice. Medicare Advantage plans are heavily marketed, often with no monthly premium and extra perks that sound great. What the commercials don’t tell you is that the insurance company can leave the market and take your coverage with them — and once your health changes, getting back to Original Medicare with a supplement can be difficult or impossible.

I stick to Medicare Supplement plans, where you keep your own doctors, there’s no network to fight, and the coverage doesn’t disappear when a carrier decides a county isn’t profitable enough.

If You’re Reading This Because Your Plan Just Got Canceled

Don’t panic, but don’t wait either. Your guaranteed-issue window is real but limited. Call or text me at (623) 742-3878 (Arizona) or (910) 760-2124 (North & South Carolina) and let’s talk through what you actually qualify for right now. There’s no cost for the conversation, and I’ll tell you plainly whether a Medigap plan is a good fit for your situation — including when it isn’t.

You can also read the original Johns Hopkins research summary if you want to see the data yourself.

Source: Meiselbach MK, Lavallee M, Xu J, Polsky D. “Forced Disenrollments Among Medicare Advantage Beneficiaries Following 2026 Plan Exits.” JAMA, February 18, 2026. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.